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2 day wrecking trip to France


Adam F
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Charlie,

The surge of hot weather from the south, the so-called Spanish Plume, is pretty rare, and computer models lack quantities of data for accurate predictions, but a ridge of high pressure fills in from the SW, with a low over N.France slowly moving north Friday night. The speed of movement of the low will be critical, and I don't think they can predict accurately.

 

That said, we're in for some pretty unusual conditions Friday/Saturday, with 30°C likely max, extremely high humidity, fog at times, heavy, and slow-moving torrential thundery downpours with associated strong winds.

 

To give an example of the weird conditions, and see what the West Country is getting in the next 48 hours:

 

Lyme Regis to Lands End including the Isles of Scilly

Strong winds are forecast

For coastal areas up to 12 miles offshore from 0600 UTC Thu 17 Jul until 0600 UTC Fri 18 Jul

24 hour forecast: Wind Northeast 3 or 4, veering east 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 for a time then veering south 4 or 5 later.

Sea State Slight becoming moderate, occasionally rough later in west.

Weather Thundery showers later.

Visibility Moderate or good, occasionally poor at first.

 

Outlook for the following 24 hours:

Wind South, becoming variable later, 3 or 4.

Sea State Moderate becoming slight.

Weather Thundery showers later.

Visibility Moderate or good, occasionally poor later.

 

I'm watching this carefully too!

 

Mike

PS Several years ago I was caught in the shipping lanes in a thunderstorm. The torrential rain flattened the sea, the radar was useless as it couldn't penetrate more than quarter of a mile, and ships were then invisible. The gusts when they came were 30 knots. I felt like a blindfolded hedgehog walking across the M25. 

PPS Recommended approach for lightning is put all portable electronic devices (phones, car keys, mobile VHF etc) into an oven in case of a nearby lightning strike. Even if turned off, electrical induction from the massive voltages can destroy circuits. The oven acts as a Faraday cage, and devices inside will survive.

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Just to add to Mikes note.

 

Any metal box will work will protect electronic's, even one with holes in (not a open lid) just in case your don't happen to have an oven on board!

Suggest turning off a phone when in a box/oven, the batteries won't last long with the phone at full chat trying to find a signal.

 

While 1/4 of a mile radar vis is poor, for a highly manoeuvrable vessel like a motor boat it should be enough to avoid actually hitting anything, rather more problematical in a sailing boat.

 

As well as charts my backup navigation is the Navionic's app on my phone - completely independent of boat related failures.

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With reduced vis you really have to keep an improved lookout. A ship steaming at 20 knots will do a mile in 3 minutes (180 seconds) so could be on your position in 45 seconds from first being visible.

 

Scanning around every few minutes just isn't adequate.

 

Nor will sitting under a black ball, asserting that you have right of way, being anchored....

 

Mike

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Thanks all

 

I think that we are still going to give it a go, with changing our minds as an ever present back up

 

Three boats to give safety back up as usual

 

Very unusual weather though, hope it blows through as we passage, not going to be fishing or anchoring in the sparks

 

Bloody weather, even in a heat wave it turns to shite.

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Erm... Not that I'm superstitious or anything but I can't help that someone is trying to tell me something?

 

Last time I actually tried to cross the channel, the drive coupling failed... Since then I've had 5 dates cancelled this year due to strong winds... When we do finally get a window.... Lightening and biblical flooding threatens!

 

I might stay at home and have a lay in......

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If this lightning should come (and let's hope it used all its energy up last night!) what is the best and safest course of action? Get rods and crew in the cabin and wait for it to pass?

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Oli

You will not be the only one getting twitchy if its all sparky

 

we may passage with the rods on deck and electronics stowed in the oven [gas off]

 

you can usually see the storms on Radar and decide whether to let them pass or even drive around them

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